A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
